Multi-domain prognostic models used in middle aged adults without known cognitive impairment for predicting subsequent dementia

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (prognosis). The objectives are as follows:

Primary objective
  • Identify all available multi-domain prognostic models (that is, models involving two or more modifiable risk factors for dementia) used in middle-aged adults (45 to 65 years) for the prediction of subsequent dementia.

Secondary objectives
  • Descriptively summarise the characteristics of these prognostic models.

  • Appraise the predictive accuracy (discrimination and calibration) in the development and validation studies of these models.

  • Identify implications of the use of dementia prognostic models for the management of people at risk of dementia or populations.

The objective in PICOTS format


Middle-aged adults (45 to 65 years) with no history of cognitive impairment or dementia at baseline. We will include cohorts in which the mean/median age is between 45 and 65 years.


Multi-domain prognostic models (involving two or more modifiable risk factors of dementia)


No comparator


Incident clinical diagnosis of dementia of any subtype


Minimum of five years of follow-up


All settings

Investigation of sources of heterogeneity between studies

The expected sources of heterogeneity are:

  • measurement of candidate predictors in the model;

  • type of dementia (e.g. early- versus late-onset dementia, Alzheimer's disease versus other forms of dementia);

  • the country where the study was conducted; and

  • method of diagnosis of dementia.

This is a protocol.