This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (prognosis). The objectives are as follows:Primary objective
Identify all available multi-domain prognostic models (that is, models involving two or more modifiable risk factors for dementia) used in middle-aged adults (45 to 65 years) for the prediction of subsequent dementia.
Descriptively summarise the characteristics of these prognostic models.
Appraise the predictive accuracy (discrimination and calibration) in the development and validation studies of these models.
Identify implications of the use of dementia prognostic models for the management of people at risk of dementia or populations.
Middle-aged adults (45 to 65 years) with no history of cognitive impairment or dementia at baseline. We will include cohorts in which the mean/median age is between 45 and 65 years.
Multi-domain prognostic models (involving two or more modifiable risk factors of dementia)
Incident clinical diagnosis of dementia of any subtype
Minimum of five years of follow-up
All settingsInvestigation of sources of heterogeneity between studies
The expected sources of heterogeneity are:
measurement of candidate predictors in the model;
type of dementia (e.g. early- versus late-onset dementia, Alzheimer's disease versus other forms of dementia);
the country where the study was conducted; and
method of diagnosis of dementia.
This is a protocol.