Multi-domain prognostic models used in middle aged adults without known cognitive impairment for predicting subsequent dementia

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (prognosis). The objectives are as follows:

Primary objective
  • Identify all available multi-domain prognostic models (that is, models involving two or more modifiable risk factors for dementia) used in middle-aged adults (45 to 65 years) for the prediction of subsequent dementia.

Secondary objectives
  • Descriptively summarise the characteristics of these prognostic models.

  • Appraise the predictive accuracy (discrimination and calibration) in the development and validation studies of these models.

  • Identify implications of the use of dementia prognostic models for the management of people at risk of dementia or populations.

The objective in PICOTS format

Population

Middle-aged adults (45 to 65 years) with no history of cognitive impairment or dementia at baseline. We will include cohorts in which the mean/median age is between 45 and 65 years.

Index

Multi-domain prognostic models (involving two or more modifiable risk factors of dementia)

Comparator

No comparator

Outcome

Incident clinical diagnosis of dementia of any subtype

Time

Minimum of five years of follow-up

Setting

All settings

Investigation of sources of heterogeneity between studies

The expected sources of heterogeneity are:

  • measurement of candidate predictors in the model;

  • type of dementia (e.g. early- versus late-onset dementia, Alzheimer's disease versus other forms of dementia);

  • the country where the study was conducted; and

  • method of diagnosis of dementia.

This is a protocol.