Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Prognosis Research and Prediction Models

The Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Prognosis Research and Prediction Models is the official guide that describes in detail the process of preparing and maintaining systematic reviews of the three types of (primary) prognosis studies: i.e. studies on overall prognosis, on prognostic factors and on prediction models. The Handbook has been produced by the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group. It is a step-by-step guide for anyone involved in conducting any type of systematic review of prognosis studies and a reference for more experienced authors.

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0. Prologue

Part I: Prognosis and Prognosis Research

1. Prognosis and types of prognosis research in healthcare
2. Study designs and data sources in prognosis research
3. Statistical measures in prognosis research

Part II: Methods for Reviews of Prognosis Studies

4. Planning a prognosis review and contents of a protocol
5. Formulating the review question using the PICOTS framework
6. Searching for studies
7. Selection and inclusion of studies
8. Data extraction from prognosis studies
9. Extracting and deriving statistical estimates from prognosis studies
10. Risk of bias and applicability assessment
11. Meta-analysis I: key principles and a general inverse-variance approach
12. Meta-analysis II: subgroup analysis, meta-regression and small-study effects
13. Meta-analysis III: one-stage models and advanced approaches
14. Summary of findings tables and grading certainty of evidence
15. Reporting the prognosis review

Part III: Special Topics

16. Updating a prognosis review
17. Individual participant data meta-analysis for prognosis research

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Important notes

• A book version (first edition) of this Handbook, to be published by Wiley in 2026, will comprise chapters 1-17.
• Chapters are freely available for personal use only via a Cochrane Account (don't have an account? Set one up here). These chapters are not for general distribution, and all content remains the copyright of Cochrane.
• These drafts will undergo further work. Further drafts may be posted here before finalization.
• If you would like feedback on any draft chapters, please use this form. Your comments will be considered in finalizing the drafts for the printed copy of the handbook.
• If you use the chapters in your work, please cite the material as set out at the beginning of each chapter, including the exact date of the version.

Editorial team

• Karel GM Moons (Editor)
• Richard D Riley (Editor)
• Anneke Damen (Associate Editor)
• Lotty Hooft (Associate Editor)
• Alfonso Iorio (Associate Editor)
• Nicole Skoetz (Associate Editor)
• Katrina Williams (Associate Editor)